My Pick: Nebraska 34, Indiana 28. The Line Says Indiana by 7.5

Nebraska football is 5 and 0 and gets No. 7 Indiana on Saturday, the defending national champion and the winner of 21 straight games. My score is 34 to 28. The question is who has the 34.

My pick: Nebraska 34, Indiana 28. The good guys win.

Many are saying this game is not that close. DraftKings has Indiana by 7.5, and the model on this site has Indiana 31 to 20. Everything below is my read, not the model’s. I could be wrong. Being wrong in college sports happens all the time, and it happens in every sport. Kickoff is 11 a.m. CT at Memorial Stadium on FOX.

Hoover against the Nebraska pass defense

Josh Hoover is not all of Indiana’s offense, but he is the linchpin. He is 76 of 107 for 1,101 yards, with 15 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, at 10.3 yards an attempt. That is a first down every time he throws it. Charlie Becker has 27 catches for 477 yards and 8 touchdowns, and Nick Marsh has 23 for 341. They do not catch it unless it is thrown right, and so far it has been.

Indiana is No. 2 in the country in pass EPA per play. Nebraska’s defense is No. 1 in pass EPA allowed. Per attempt, the edge is Indiana: 10.3 net yards an attempt, No. 5, and a 57.1% pass success rate, No. 4. Completion percentage is even, with Indiana at No. 17 and Nebraska’s defense at No. 14.

The rest of it leans Nebraska. The Blackshirts get 3.2 sacks a game. They hold opponents to 21.3% on third down, No. 2 in the country, and to a 19.8% success rate on passing downs, No. 9.

Get home

Nebraska needs to get above its average. Get 3 sacks. Get 4. Riley Van Poppel, Donovan Jones, Jamir Conn and Williams Nwaneri have to make Hoover nervous. He might not throw the interception, but shake him up and one can get loose. My read is that pressure makes him inaccurate, and that matters more than the picks.

The forecast in our model data has wind at 19 mph in Lincoln. That is a real factor inside Memorial Stadium for a team that throws it like Indiana does.

Protect Colandrea

Nebraska allows one sack a game, tied for No. 18. Indiana gets 3 a game. Tobi Osunsanmi has 4 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss in five games. Nebraska has to know where he is on every snap.

Third down is the swing. Nebraska converts 52.4%, No. 9, and Indiana converts 51.9%, No. 13. Indiana’s defense allows 26.9%. Nebraska needs to win the game there.

How Nebraska wins or loses it

Penalties, penalties, penalties. Nebraska gives away 73.4 penalty yards a game, tied for No. 121, and had 16 flags for 132 yards against Maryland. Indiana gives up 27.6, tied for No. 2. This is the game to stop it.

Finish drives. Nebraska has scored on 30 of 31 trips to the red zone, and 28 of those were touchdowns. That has to continue. Turnover margin is Nebraska’s too, plus 6 to Indiana’s plus 2.

Field position is Indiana’s edge on both sides of the ball. Punting is Nebraska’s, 41.9 yards to 38.9. That is 3 yards, and 3 yards is a lot in a game of inches.

Everybody is talking about Kyle Cunanan being 3 of 6 on field goals, against 6 of 8 for Indiana. Look at where the attempts came from. I think two of his three misses were out of his range, and I think Nebraska was finding out what that range is in a game and not on a practice field.

All week the numbers have gone three ways. A lot of it is Indiana, a lot of it is even and a lot of it is Nebraska. Clean it up and finish drives, and Nebraska has more than a puncher’s chance.

The last time

Indiana beat Nebraska 56 to 7 in Bloomington in 2024 and leads the series 11 to 9 with 3 ties. Indiana is No. 7 in the AP poll and No. 4 in SP+.

This is not that Indiana team, and it is not that Nebraska team. I think Indiana in 2026 is closer to Indiana in 2024 than Nebraska in 2026 is to Nebraska in 2024. That means a closer game than people think.

What is on the line

Nebraska has not beaten a ranked team since 2016, so Matt Rhule has not done it here. That noise is true, and it is a small piece of the whole story. He rebuilt Temple and moved on. He rebuilt Baylor and moved on. He is in year four of this rebuild and he is still here. I think he wants to see the fruit from the trees he planted.

Win, and Nebraska is in conversations it has not been in for a long time. Lose a close one with a good showing, and Nebraska still earns some national respect.

The thing nobody outside Nebraska can measure

Atmosphere. There is something in the air around this state, this program and this coaching staff, and it feels different. Husker faithful, you are going to bring the energy on Saturday.

Husker Nation, the score is 34 to 28. Saturday tells us who has the 34. I say Nebraska.