Nebraska vs Indiana Football: Turnovers and the Run Game

Nebraska football and No. 7 Indiana are both 5 and 0, and neither one gives the ball away. Nebraska has lost two turnovers in five games. Indiana has lost one.

So the open question for Saturday in Lincoln is who steals the extra possession, and whether the Nebraska front can slow an Indiana run game that almost never gets stopped in the backfield. Kickoff is 11 a.m. CT on FOX.

Nobody is handing it over

Nebraska has turned it over twice, tied for No. 4 in the country. Indiana’s defense has forced three turnovers, tied for No. 121. Anthony Colandrea has 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 1,142 yards and 65.7% passing. If he keeps that up, Indiana’s defense has to beat Nebraska straight up, because it has not been taking the ball away.

The flip side is the worry. Indiana’s one lost turnover is tied for No. 1. Against FBS teams the Hoosiers have lost zero. Josh Hoover has 15 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on 1,101 yards and 71.0% passing.

On the season Nebraska is plus 6 in turnover margin, tied for No. 9. Indiana is plus 2, tied for No. 48.

The Blackshirts take it away

Nebraska’s defense has eight takeaways, and 2 per game against FBS teams. Owen Chambliss, Dwayne McDougle III and Donovan Jones have an interception each, and McDougle’s was an 81 yard pick six. Steal one extra possession from this Indiana team and that might be the ballgame.

Pressure is the path. Nebraska gets 3.2 sacks a game, tied for No. 11, and Indiana allows 1.4, tied for No. 47. Jahsear Whittington has 2.5 sacks. Riley Van Poppel, Williams Nwaneri, Donovan Jones and Jamir Conn have 2 each. Hoover has not thrown a pick, so the front may have to knock one loose.

Indiana’s defense brings pressure of its own. It makes 8.20 tackles for loss a game, tied for No. 9, and 3 sacks a game. Tobi Osunsanmi has 4 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss, and Stephen Daley has 3 sacks.

Indiana runs the ball

The Hoosiers run for 252.6 yards a game, No. 9, and 6.44 yards a carry, No. 4. It starts up front. Indiana is stuffed on only 12.1% of its runs, No. 14, and gets 3.60 line yards a carry, No. 11.

That is a problem for this front. Nebraska ranks No. 101 in stuff rate and No. 88 in line yards allowed. Van Poppel, Donovan Jones and Conn have 4 tackles for loss apiece. They need a big day.

It is two backs and two looks. Turbo Richard is the home run hitter, with 63 carries for 587 yards, 9.3 a carry and 5 touchdowns. Lee Beebe is the volume back, with 89 carries for 520 yards, 4 touchdowns and a long of 70. Nebraska has to handle both.

The good news is that Nebraska allows only 3.18 yards a carry, No. 32, and on rush success rate the matchup is basically even. The damage comes when runs reach the second level, where Indiana is No. 5 in open field yards per carry. That is the same weak spot the big play numbers for Nebraska and Indiana pointed to.

The other side of the ball

This is where Indiana’s defense holds the edge outright. It allows 2.06 yards a carry, No. 5, and a 26.2% rush success rate, No. 2. It stuffs 25.5% of runs, No. 12.

Nebraska runs for 231 yards a game, No. 17, and is No. 4 in rush EPA per play, but here the success numbers say Indiana. Mekhi Nelson has 56 carries for 266 yards and 4 touchdowns, Colandrea has 38 for 249 and Isaiah Mozee has 39 for 195. Jamal Rule has 42 carries for 333 yards and 5 touchdowns, and his status is unconfirmed.

Read the numbers the right way

Turnovers swing on tiny numbers. Each team has played five games, one of them against an FCS opponent: Howard for Indiana and North Dakota for Nebraska. The FBS only splits come from box scores, four games each. The numbers are from College Football Data through Oct. 4, and the ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Husker Nation, Saturday tells us who steals the extra possession, and whether the Nebraska front can get Indiana’s backs on the ground before they reach the second level.