Nebraska Football vs. Indiana: A Defense That Almost Never Breaks, and Breaks Big When It Does

Nebraska football is 5 and 0 after beating Maryland, No. 7 Indiana is 5 and 0 too, and Saturday’s game in Lincoln turns on a strange fact about the Hoosiers’ defense. It almost never breaks. When it does, it breaks wide open.

That is the open question for Big Noon Kickoff: can Nebraska cash the few swings it gets, and can the Blackshirts tackle well enough in space to deny Indiana its own? Kickoff is 11 a.m. CT on FOX.

When Nebraska hits, it hits big

Nebraska is No. 4 in the country in rush explosiveness. Indiana’s defense is No. 115 against it. Across the whole offense the Huskers rank No. 12 in explosiveness, and Indiana ranks No. 135 of 138 in explosiveness allowed. When the Huskers get a run going, it tends to be a big one.

The names behind it are Jamal Rule, with 42 carries for 333 yards and a long of 59, and Kwazi Gilmer, with 29 catches for 387 yards and 6 touchdowns. Rule’s status for Saturday is unconfirmed. The passing game as a whole is a different story, at No. 84 in explosiveness.

The catch

Indiana lets opponents succeed on just 29.6% of plays, No. 3 in FBS, and on 26.2% of runs, No. 2. It allows 4.14 yards per play, which ranks No. 8. You do not get many swings at this defense.

That is the paradox. A unit that sits near the bottom of the country in explosiveness allowed is not a defense that gets gashed all day. It is a defense that, when it does crack, cracks wide open. Nebraska succeeds on 49.4% of its plays, No. 21. It has to cash the few chances it gets.

Flip it around

Indiana’s offense is the threat. The Hoosiers are No. 15 in explosiveness, No. 4 in yards per play at 7.87, and No. 5 in open field yards per carry at 2.39. Turbo Richard has a long run of 57 and Lee Beebe has one of 70. Charlie Becker averages 17.7 yards per catch with a long of 79.

Nebraska’s defense is No. 99 in explosiveness allowed and No. 119 on runs. It holds up better through the air, at No. 28, and it is No. 15 in yards per play allowed at 4.47. Tackling in space is the whole ballgame for the Blackshirts.

Read the numbers the right way

Explosiveness here is the average value of successful plays only. It is not a count of big plays, so a defense that allows very few successful plays, which is Indiana, can still rank low. The samples are small too: five games each, including one FCS opponent each. The numbers are from College Football Data through Oct. 4, and the ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Both teams are built to hit home runs. Husker Nation, Saturday tells us which defense keeps the other team’s backs from getting loose at the second level, because that team probably walks out with the win.