Prediction
Nebraska vs. Indiana Prediction: The Model Picks Against the Huskers for the First Time, 31-20
Nebraska football is 5-0 and hosts No. 7 Indiana on Saturday, and for the first time this season the model picks against the Huskers: Indiana 31-20. The open question is the margin. DraftKings has Indiana by 7.5, and the model has it at 12.3.
Everything below is the model’s output, run Wednesday morning with DraftKings lines… these are not my picks… and it covers the eight games on the Big Ten slate.
Last week, in two numbers
Week 5 went 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the spread. Season to date: 44-19 and 29-32-2.
The three misses were Northwestern 34-13 over Penn State and Minnesota 20-14 over Michigan, both toss-ups, and Purdue 24-17 at Illinois, where the model had Illinois at 83.1% with its strong label. It had Nebraska 33-20 over Maryland, and Nebraska won 48-23 after trailing 16-7.
The Week 5 board had no pick against the favorite, so that record is still 1-7. It can move this week.
Nebraska vs. Indiana
The model has Indiana 31-20, a solid label at 77.7%. The line is Indiana by 7.5, so the model gives the Hoosiers 4.8 more points than DraftKings does. Its two largest factors for Indiana are last season’s SP+ rating and current power rating, and it flags both teams as replacing their starting quarterback. On this season’s games alone, it has Indiana by 11.2.
In the four earlier boards with a Nebraska game, the model picked Nebraska each time and Nebraska won each time.
Kickoff is 11 a.m. CT Saturday at Memorial Stadium on FOX. Both teams are 5-0 and 2-0 in the Big Ten. It is Nebraska’s first ranked opponent of the season, and Indiana is the first defending national champion to play in Lincoln since Texas in 2006.
The history favors the visitor. Indiana leads the series 11-9-3 and leads 8-6-2 in Lincoln. The teams have split four games as Big Ten opponents, and the last one was 56-7 Indiana in Bloomington in 2024. Nebraska’s last win over a ranked team was 35-32 over Oregon in 2016, and its last win over a top 10 team was 39-38 over Michigan State in 2015.
The threat is all of Indiana. The Hoosiers have won 21 straight games and are 32-2 under Curt Cignetti. They score 44.2 points a game, eighth in the country, and allow 10.8, fifth. Josh Hoover has thrown 15 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Nebraska’s numbers are close to that. The Huskers score 43.6 a game, ninth, and allow 14.2, 15th. Anthony Colandrea has 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and Nebraska has turned it over twice in five games. Both previews this week have the detail: neither team turns it over, and Indiana runs for 252.6 yards a game, and the big play numbers cut both ways.
The pick against the favorite
USC at Penn State. The model has USC 28-27 at 50.1%, and DraftKings has Penn State by 1.5. The model flags it as a coin flip where it has no real conviction. It is the only game on the board where the model and the line disagree on the winner.
The other coin flip
Iowa at Washington, Friday night. The model has Washington 24-23 at 51.4%, and the line is Washington by 3.5.
The biggest gaps with the line
In each of these, the model and the line pick the same winner and disagree on the margin:
- Illinois at Michigan State: the line has Illinois by 2.5, the model by 8.5. A 6.0-point gap, the widest on the board. Illinois is the team the model had as a strong pick last week, and it lost.
- Maryland at Ohio State: the line has Ohio State by 34.5, the model by 28.7. 5.8 points.
- Indiana at Nebraska: the line has Indiana by 7.5, the model by 12.3. 4.8 points.
- Minnesota at Purdue: the line has Minnesota by 2.5, the model by 7.2. 4.7 points.
The board
| Game | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa at Washington (Fri.) | Washington 24-23 | Washington by 3.5 |
| Indiana at Nebraska | Indiana 31-20 | Indiana by 7.5 |
| Ball State at Northwestern | Northwestern 42-10 | Northwestern by 36.5 |
| Illinois at Michigan State | Illinois 30-21 | Illinois by 2.5 |
| UCLA at Oregon | Oregon 34-20 | Oregon by 11.5 |
| Maryland at Ohio State | Ohio State 41-13 | Ohio State by 34.5 |
| USC at Penn State | USC 28-27 | Penn State by 1.5 |
| Minnesota at Purdue | Minnesota 28-21 | Minnesota by 2.5 |
Bold marks the pick against the favorite. Lines are DraftKings, pulled Wednesday morning.
Confidence labels
Three picks carry the strong label (Ball State at Northwestern at 97.9%, Maryland at Ohio State at 96.2%, UCLA at Oregon at 81.6%), two solid (Indiana at Nebraska and Illinois at Michigan State), one lean (Minnesota at Purdue), and two toss-up (Iowa at Washington and USC at Penn State).
Season to date, strong picks are 30-3, solid 7-3, lean 2-4 and toss-ups 5-9. The model’s own season check reports the labels out of order, with samples still too small to read.
What the model says about itself
Backtested on 2022 through 2025, it picks the winner about 70% of the time and does not beat the closing spread. Straight up this season it is 44-19, which is 69.8%. Against the spread it is 29-32-2, which is the part the backtest said to expect.
Husker Nation, the model says Indiana by 12 and the line says Indiana by 7.5. Saturday tells us which number was closer, and whether a 5-0 Nebraska team makes both of them wrong.