Prediction
Week Four Graded: 5-4, and the Model Had Nebraska's 31 Exactly
Husker fans, here’s how the model’s Week Four Big Ten board graded out.
5-4 straight up. 4-5 against the spread. Week Three was 10-1.
Nebraska
The model had Nebraska 31-20. Nebraska won 31-13.
The line had the Huskers by 5.5 and the model by 10.5. The final margin was 18, so the model was closer than the line on this one, and it covered. The recap is here.
The scorecard
| Game | Model said | Actually | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern at Indiana | Indiana 31-17 | Indiana 29-23 | ✓ |
| Illinois at Ohio State | Ohio State 34-17 | Ohio State 42-19 | ✓ |
| UCLA at Maryland | Maryland 28-24 | UCLA 54-3 | ✗ |
| Notre Dame at Purdue | Notre Dame 37-17 | Notre Dame 49-10 | ✓ |
| Iowa at Michigan | Iowa 23-21 | Iowa 20-19 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State 28-17 | Wisconsin 24-20 | ✗ |
| Nebraska at Michigan State | Nebraska 31-20 | Nebraska 31-13 | ✓ |
| Oregon at USC | USC 28-27 | Oregon 41-27 | ✗ |
| Minnesota at Washington | Washington 30-17 | Minnesota 27-24 | ✗ |
Average score error: 8.33 points a team. Season to date: 39-16 straight up, 25-28-2 against the spread, 9.03 points a team.
Against the favorite
The model picked against the betting favorite three times this week, and for the first time this season one of them came in. Iowa won 20-19 at Michigan, a one-point game the model had at 23-21.
The other two missed. UCLA beat Maryland 54-3, and Oregon beat USC 41-27. On the season, picks against the favorite are now 1-7.
The two solid misses
The favorite lost three times this week. The model had one of those upsets, Iowa, and missed the other two, both picks it labeled solid:
- Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20. The model had Penn State 28-17 at 74%, the line Penn State by 10.
- Minnesota 27, Washington 24. The model had Washington 30-17 at 77%, the line Washington by 10.
In both games the model and the line had the favorite by about the same margin.
Against the line
On the final margin, the line was closer in six games and the model in three: Nebraska, Iowa at Michigan, and Northwestern at Indiana, where the line had Indiana by 21 and the game finished a six-point win. Average margin error: 15.5 points for the model, 15.2 for the line. UCLA’s 51-point win pushed both numbers up.
Confidence labels
| Label | Straight up |
|---|---|
| Strong | 3-0 |
| Solid | 1-2 |
| Toss-up | 1-2 |
On the season, strong picks are 29-2. The model’s own season check still reports the labels out of order: lean picks are 0-4 while toss-ups are 5-7, a gap the check flags as larger than chance. Both samples are small.
Next
Nebraska is 4-0 and hosts Maryland for Homecoming on Saturday, 3 p.m. CT.
Husker Nation, the Week Five Big Ten board comes before Saturday.