Prediction
Three Picks Against the Favorite: The Model's Big Ten Board for Week Four
Husker fans, here’s what the model says about Week 4. Everything below is the model’s output, run Wednesday night with that evening’s betting lines… these are not my picks… and it covers the nine games on the Big Ten slate.
Last week, in two numbers
Week 3 went 10-1 straight up and 4-6-1 against the spread. Season to date: 34-12 and 21-23-2. The full grade is here.
Carry one number from that grade into this board. When the model picks against the betting favorite, it is 0-5 on the season.
Three picks against the favorite
Of nine games, the model and the line disagree on the winner three times. All three are the model’s least confident picks on the board.
- Oregon at USC. The line has Oregon by 3. The model has USC 28-27, at 50.6%, its closest call of the week.
- Iowa at Michigan. The line has Michigan by 5.5. The model has Iowa 23-21, at 53%.
- UCLA at Maryland. The line has UCLA by 1.5. The model has Maryland 28-24, at 59%.
The model labels all three toss-ups, and its own flags call two of them coin flips with no real conviction. Toss-ups are 4-5 on the season.
Nebraska at Michigan State
The model has Nebraska 31-20, a solid label at 74%. The line has Nebraska by 5.5, so the model likes the Huskers by five more points than the market does.
Its one flag on the game: both teams are replacing their starting quarterback.
Kickoff is 4 p.m. CT Saturday in East Lansing. It’s Nebraska’s Big Ten opener, and the Huskers are 3-0 after beating North Dakota 34-7.
The biggest gaps with the line
In each of these, the model and the line pick the same winner and disagree on the margin:
- Illinois at Ohio State: the line has Ohio State by 26.5, the model by 17. A 9.5-point gap, the widest on the board.
- Notre Dame at Purdue: the model has Notre Dame by 20, the line by 27.5. 7.5 points.
- Northwestern at Indiana: the line has Indiana by 21, the model by 14. 7 points.
The model flags all three. Its own backtest note on games where it disagrees with the line by this much: those picks went 43.6% against the spread.
The board
| Game | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
| Northwestern at Indiana | Indiana 31-17 | Indiana by 21 |
| Illinois at Ohio State | Ohio State 34-17 | Ohio State by 26.5 |
| UCLA at Maryland | Maryland 28-24 | UCLA by 1.5 |
| Notre Dame at Purdue | Notre Dame 37-17 | Notre Dame by 27.5 |
| Iowa at Michigan | Iowa 23-21 | Michigan by 5.5 |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State 28-17 | Penn State by 10 |
| Nebraska at Michigan State | Nebraska 31-20 | Nebraska by 5.5 |
| Oregon at USC | USC 28-27 | Oregon by 3 |
| Minnesota at Washington | Washington 30-17 | Washington by 10 |
Bold is a pick against the favorite. Lines are DraftKings, pulled Wednesday night, and they will move before kickoff.
Confidence labels
Three picks carry the strong label, three solid, three toss-up. Strong picks are 26-2 this season.
The model’s season check still reports the labels out of order… lean picks are 0-4 while toss-ups are 4-5… and both samples are small.
What the model says about itself
Backtested on 2022 through 2025, it picks the winner about 70% of the time and does not beat the closing spread. Straight up this season it has been better than that, 34-12. Against the spread it is 21-23-2, which is the part the backtest said to expect.
Husker Nation, the grade on this board comes early next week.