Prediction
One Pick Against the Favorite: The Model's Big Ten Board for Week Three
Husker fans, here’s what the model says about Week 3. Everything below is the model’s output, run Wednesday night with that evening’s betting lines — these are not my picks — and it covers the 11 games on the Big Ten slate, which leaves out Nebraska’s game against FCS North Dakota.
Last week, in two numbers
Week 2 went 8-7 straight up and 6-9 against the spread. Season to date: 24-11 and 17-17-1. The full grade is here.
Two results from that grade are worth carrying into this board: picks that went against the betting favorite went 0-3, and picks labeled lean are 0-3 on the season.
One pick against the favorite
Of 11 games, the model and the line disagree on the winner once.
Virginia Tech at Maryland. The line has Virginia Tech by 3. The model has Maryland 30-21, at 69%, labeled lean.
Against the favorite, and a lean. That is the same profile as the three misses in Week 2.
The biggest gaps with the line
In each of these, the model and the line pick the same winner and disagree on the margin:
- Colorado at Northwestern: the model has Northwestern by 17, the line by 3.5. A 13.7-point gap, the widest on the board.
- Buffalo at Penn State: the line has Penn State by 41.5, the model by 28. 13.1 points.
- Western Kentucky at Indiana: the line has Indiana by 44.5, the model by 33. 11.4 points.
The model’s own backtest note on games like these: when it disagreed with the line by 10 points or more, it went 43.6% against the spread.
Under the line
For the favorite in 9 of the 11 games, the model’s projected margin is smaller than the line’s. The two exceptions are Northwestern and Maryland.
The largest: Kent State at Ohio State. The line is 52.5. The model says 47-3, a 43.5-point margin.
Worth knowing about this slate: 9 of the 22 teams on it return less than a quarter of last season’s passing production.
The board
| Game | Model | Line |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo at Penn State | Penn State 38-10 | Penn State by 41.5 |
| Kent State at Ohio State | Ohio State 47-3 | Ohio State by 52.5 |
| Akron at Minnesota | Minnesota 34-17 | Minnesota by 23.5 |
| Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin | Wisconsin 34-13 | Wisconsin by 23.5 |
| USC at Rutgers | USC 35-20 | USC by 23.5 |
| UTEP at Michigan | Michigan 40-7 | Michigan by 34.5 |
| Western Kentucky at Indiana | Indiana 44-10 | Indiana by 44.5 |
| Michigan State at Notre Dame | Notre Dame 38-10 | Notre Dame by 29.5 |
| Virginia Tech at Maryland | Maryland 30-21 | Virginia Tech by 3 |
| Colorado at Northwestern | Northwestern 34-17 | Northwestern by 3.5 |
| Purdue at UCLA | UCLA 31-21 | UCLA by 14 |
Confidence labels
Nine of the 11 picks carry the strong label. Strong picks are 17-2 this season. Purdue at UCLA is labeled solid, Maryland is the lean, and there are no toss-ups on the board.
The model’s season check still reports the labels out of order — lean picks are 0-3 while toss-ups are 4-5 — and both samples are small.
Nebraska vs North Dakota (not on the model board)
Nebraska hosts North Dakota on Saturday at 6:15 p.m. on BTN. North Dakota is an FCS team, and the model only picks games between two FBS teams, so there is no projection for this one. The betting line is Nebraska by 24.5.
Husker Nation, the grade on this board comes early next week.