My Pick: Nebraska 45, North Dakota 13

Husker fans, Saturday isn’t complicated: bigger people, worse weather, more runs.

Nebraska has started the same five offensive linemen in both games: Elijah Pritchett at left tackle, Paul Mubenga at left guard, Justin Evans at center, Brendan Black at right guard and Gunnar Gottula at right tackle. They go 330, 320, 315, 325 and 320 — 1,610 pounds, an average of 322. Tree Babalade (6-5, 340) and Preston Taumua (6-4, 330) rotate in behind them.

North Dakota’s defensive line has one man over 300 pounds. Wyatt Bell, at 301. After him it’s 278, 275, 272, 258, 248, 245. Six of their 14 linemen are freshmen, three of those listed at 230 or less. Their linebackers run 210 to 236.

That’s the game. Everything else is detail.

The one who could have changed it isn’t playing

Lance Rucker is North Dakota’s best player and an Omaha kid — first-team All-Missouri Valley, a program-record 11.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss last year. He hurt his foot in practice six days before the opener and has not played since. He is out Saturday.

Without him, the Fighting Hawks have six sacks in three games. Their leader in tackles for loss is a sophomore, Brody Thornton, with four.

Nebraska’s line, meanwhile, has allowed one sack, three quarterback hits and five hurries in two games, per PFF. A CBS study of career snap counts rated it the fifth-most experienced offensive line room in the country, and Black, Babalade and Mubenga arrived with 60 career Power Four starts between them. Their new position coach, Geep Wade, came from Georgia Tech, where his lines helped the Yellow Jackets rank seventh nationally in fewest sacks allowed and 13th in rushing yards a game from 2023 to 2025.

The run numbers, and the asterisk on them

Nebraska has rushed for 512 yards on 76 carries — 6.7 a carry, 248 against Ohio and 264 against Bowling Green.

North Dakota has allowed 236 yards on 88 carries, 2.7 a carry, with no run longer than 23 yards.

Here’s the asterisk. Their opponents ran it 29 times a game, because those games were 42-21, 62-26 and 47-23 and everybody was throwing to catch up. LIU, St. Thomas and Portland State are a combined 2-7. That front has not spent an evening getting run at 40 times by people 50 pounds heavier.

Why I’m at 45 and not 38

The National Weather Service has Lincoln at 77 degrees at kickoff with a 41 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, rising to 54 percent from 7 p.m. through the end of the night, humidity climbing toward 97 percent, and a light north wind around 9 miles an hour. The dry window, if there is one, is the first drive.

There’s an old rule at the dog track. When the surface turns wet and sloppy, the heavy dogs handle it better — the weight gives them traction and they don’t slip, while the light, fast ones lose the edge their speed was worth on a dry track. A fast surface stops paying.

Saturday turns Memorial Stadium into a wet track. Nebraska has the heavy dogs.

Rain is the reason this isn’t 52-31. But it is also why I moved the number up rather than down.

Nebraska is going to get points it didn’t drive for — a turnover, a short field, something on special teams. Wet footballs produce those, and Nebraska is the team that can answer by handing it off. Once North Dakota is down three scores, Jerry Kaminski has to throw it, and incompletions stop the clock. A team chasing in the fourth quarter gives the ball back more often, not less. More possessions for Nebraska, not fewer.

So: 45-13.

Take them seriously anyway

Kaminski is 61 of 79 for 801 yards and 11 touchdowns, and last August he had Kansas State beaten — North Dakota led 35-31 with 1:49 left in Manhattan and lost 38-35 when the Wildcats went 81 yards in 63 seconds. Kaminski was making his first career start that day.

That is the tape Nebraska’s staff watched all week, and it is why Holgorsen spent Tuesday saying that the longer this thing goes, the more hope it gives them.

The counterweight is brutal, though. Power Four teams are 223-2 against FCS opponents since 2022, riding a 125-game win streak. Nebraska is 16-0 all time against the FCS and beat Houston Christian 59-7 in this same slot last September.

This is my pick, not the model’s. The model’s Week 3 board doesn’t include this game at all — it only picks games between two FBS teams.

What I’ll be watching

The first three Nebraska possessions. If they’re runs, and they’re moving, the heavy dogs are through the slop and the rest is arithmetic. If it’s 14-10 at the half and the storms have arrived, then Holgorsen told you Tuesday exactly what the fourth quarter is going to feel like.

Husker Nation, 6:15, BTN, bring a coat. Nebraska 45, North Dakota 13.