Everyone Has Nebraska at 7–5. The Number Is Wrong.

The national media has Nebraska pegged at 7–5. Vegas agrees. They’re both grading a team that doesn’t exist anymore.

Every one of those projections is built on two assumptions: that the run defense that finished 100th nationally against the run is still broken, and that losing Dylan Raiola made this offense worse. Husker Nation, I don’t buy either one. Here’s why — and here’s my card.

The run defense isn’t the same unit. It isn’t even the same structure.

The 3-3-5 is gone. Rob Aurich’s 4-2-5 puts a true four-man front on the field, and the interior finally has Big Ten bodies to run it — Riley Van Poppel back, plus Jahsear Whittington from Pitt and Owen Stoudmire from Boston College rotating inside.

If you want to know what Aurich does to a bad run defense, look at what he just did at San Diego State:

• Rushing defense: 121st nationally to 16th.
• Scoring defense: 97th to 5th — from 29.6 points a game down to 12.6.
• Red zone defense: 3rd in the country.

One year. Same roster, better scheme, better coach. They nominated him for the Broyles Award for it, and he inherits more talent in Lincoln than he had in San Diego.

Colandrea is an upgrade, and I’ll say it plainly.

Raiola leaving was the best thing that happened to this offense. Say what you want about how it ended — a broken fibula nine games in, then the portal in January — the offense that comes back is better suited to the guy running it now.

Anthony Colandrea is a true RPO quarterback — the Mountain West Player of the Year, a guy who checks run/pass at the line and punishes you with his legs when the box is wrong. His UNLV offense finished touchdowns in the red zone. Nebraska kicked field goals. That gap — about five points a game — is the difference between last year’s 7–6 and something much bigger.

Yes, he threw picks at Virginia. He also grew up. Holgorsen’s offense fits him the way it never fit Raiola.

The card.

• Ohio — W. Best of the non-conference slate. Not close enough to matter.
• Bowling Green — W.
• North Dakota — W.
• at Michigan State — W. The referendum game. A rebuilding Spartan team, a new coaching staff, and the first real test of the run defense. Win here and the 5–0 start is real.
• Maryland — W. The Terps are 1–13 in October and November over the last two years. That’s not a slump. That’s who they are.
• Indiana — L. The champs come to Lincoln, and I think it’s closer than anyone outside this state expects. Cignetti has lost one regular-season game in two years. Upset watch — but I’m not picking on hope.
• at Oregon — L. And yes — that’s Dylan Raiola on the other sideline now. He landed in Eugene after the portal, and October 17 is the referendum on everything I just argued. Dante Moore, a top-3 roster, and Autzen is a bad place to hold that conversation. The goal is to leave respected.
• Washington — W. Halloween night. Blackout in Memorial. The Huskies kept Demond Williams, but their backfield and defensive line have questions, and no one wants to walk into Lincoln on that night.
• at Illinois — W. This is where the national picks fall apart. The Illini return seven starters and are breaking in a brand-new defensive line. Our RPO against a front that’s never played together? I’ll take it.
• at Rutgers — W. New quarterback, thin roster, and a schedule that got harder.
• Ohio State — L. Still the class of the sport. The day we flip this pick is the day the program has arrived. Not yet.
• at Iowa — W. Heresy, I know. Black Friday at Kinnick is where Nebraska seasons go to die. But Iowa returns six starters and still hasn’t named a quarterback between two guys with almost no tape. A run-first team with no passing threat against a fixed run defense — that’s the whole game. If Aurich is who I think he is, we finally take one home from Iowa City.

9–3.

Write it down. If the run defense is real and Colandrea is who UNLV saw, this team wins nine and plays meaningful football in late November for the first time in a decade.

And if I’m wrong? Michigan State on September 26 will tell us early. Watch what their ground game does against this front. That’s the number I’ll be staring at — and I’ll be back here after that game, either taking my victory lap or owning it.

Either way, Husker Nation: this season matters again. See you September 5.