Nebraska 42, Ohio 17: My Pick, Not the Model's

Husker fans, this one is mine.

The model has its own pick and we published it — Nebraska 34, Ohio 17, and it has been arguing with the market all week. I’m going higher.

Nebraska 42, Ohio 17.

That’s the Huskers by 25. The market says 23.5. The model says 17.3. I’m the most bullish number on the board, and I want to tell you exactly why — and where I might be wrong.

First, a correction we owe you

When we published the model’s Week One picks, we wrote that Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro was back. He isn’t. He’s not on the 2026 roster.

That was wrong when we printed it, and it’s the single most important fact about Saturday, so let’s fix it properly.

The quarterbacks are the game

Ohio’s starter is Nick Poulos, a sixth-year graduate student. Big kid — 6-6, 243.

Here is his career, all of it: 290 passing yards. Two touchdowns. One start.

Twelve appearances since he arrived, one start, at Kentucky in 2024. He came in for Navarro in the middle of the Ohio State game last year. Behind him is Matt Vezza, who threw for 2,673 yards at New Hampshire — good numbers, at the FCS level, and he’s the backup.

Now Nebraska’s quarterback.

Anthony Colandrea has 31 career starts across Virginia and UNLV and was the Mountain West’s Offensive Player of the Year. He is a dual threat and, more than that, he is decisive. He sees it, he commits, he goes. He doesn’t hold the ball waiting for the picture to get prettier.

Thirty-one starts against one. That’s not an edge, that’s a canyon.

And it’s the exact thing our model can’t price, because the model was reading a roster that still had Navarro on it. This is where a person beats the machine: the machine knows last season. I know what happened since.

The rest of the case

The offensive line looks improved. That matters more for Colandrea than for most — a decisive quarterback with a clean pocket is a different player than a decisive quarterback running for his life.

The defense should be better, and Rob Aurich is the reason. He took a San Diego State defense to 28th in the country on the 86th-most talented roster. Nebraska finished 44th last year with the 20th-most talented roster. Give that man Big Ten players.

There are targets. Colandrea has people to throw to, which was not always true here.

And yes — there’s a chip on this shoulder. Five-and-six. At home. Eleven o’clock, first game, sold-out stadium, hot as blazes. This team has something to prove and the first chance to prove it.

Where I might be wrong

Two places, and I’ll name them.

Special teams. That’s my question mark. If the kicking game is a mess — a blocked punt, a short field, a missed kick that becomes points the other way — this is a 35-point game, not a 42-point one. That unit is the difference between my number and a lower one.

And I came down off 49. That was my first instinct. Then I looked: Nebraska has scored 40 or more three times in 37 games under Matt Rhule, and only once above 44 — against an FCS team. Ohio’s defense allowed 21.9 a game last season and gave up 35-plus twice all year.

Forty-nine was my heart. Forty-two is my heart with the homework done.

One thing in Ohio’s favor, because it’s real

Ohio went 8-4 last season. Nebraska went 5-6. Ohio outscored people by 5.8 a game; Nebraska got outscored by 2.

That’s the case for the model’s caution and I’m not hiding it. My answer is that those numbers were built in the MAC, against MAC schedules — and the quarterback who built them is gone.

Husker fans, 11:00 a.m., FS1. I’ve got Nebraska 42, Ohio 17. The model says I’m eight points too high. Saturday tells us which of us was watching more carefully.