Nebraska 52, Bowling Green 10: My Pick, and I'm Not Hedging It

Husker Nation, it’s game day — and this is my pick, not the machine’s.

Thursday the model put out its Big Ten board and had Nebraska 38-10. Vegas opened at 29.5 and has since drifted to 30.5. I’m going past both of them.

Nebraska 52, Bowling Green 10.

Here’s how I got there.

Bowling Green lost to an FCS team

This is the part I don’t think enough people have looked at. Bowling Green is 0-1. They lost their opener at home, 20-13, to Tarleton State — an FCS program, in year two of the Eddie George era.

And look at how. Tarleton State’s back ran for 250 yards on that defense, with runs of 83 and 72. One back, from an FCS program, out-gained Ohio’s entire team against Nebraska last week — 250 yards to 139.

Nebraska hung 49 on Ohio last week while playing a sloppy first half. Now they get a defense that just let an FCS team run through it.

Their quarterback is not Ohio’s quarterback

I said on the channel that Bowling Green’s quarterback threw for nearly 300 and could move. That was too generous, and I’ll own it. Jay Kastantin went 24-of-30 for 262 yards in his Falcons debut — accurate, efficient, and his team still scored 13 and lost at home.

Compare that to what actually hurt Nebraska last Saturday. Ohio’s quarterback ran for 75 yards, more than half of Ohio’s entire rushing total, and Rob Aurich called it rush-lane discipline rather than talent. Kastantin is a pocket passer. He is not the problem Ohio was.

And the field general is back

Owen Chambliss is expected to make his Nebraska debut tonight. Matt Rhule said so Thursday on the Huskers Radio Network, and ESPN reported the same. The San Diego State transfer has been out since camp with a hamstring and missed the opener.

Here is the part that matters: Chambliss played for Aurich at San Diego State last season, and his head coach there said openly that his football IQ improved working with him. He was not a role player either — 110 tackles, nine and a half for loss, four sacks, first-team All-Mountain West.

And look at the defense he did it on. San Diego State gave up 12.6 points a game in the regular season, fifth-best in the country. That number is easy to skim past, so here is what it actually looked like: three shutouts, and five more opponents held to a touchdown or less. Twelve games, 151 points against them all season.

That is the defense Matt Rhule hired Aurich away from. (Not airtight — North Texas hung 49 on them in the bowl. When it broke, it broke properly.)

He isn’t learning this system. He’s played in it.

(And he wears No. 0 — a single digit, voted on by teammates, before he had played a snap here. That tells you what the locker room thinks.)

Three things I’m watching

Is Chambliss on a snap count? “Expected to play” off a camp-long hamstring usually means limited. If he goes early, the rush lanes go back to what they were against Ohio.

Do the special teams become a factor? They weren’t bad last week. They also weren’t a factor. This is an opponent you can actually take something from — this is the night to flip a field, or a game.

Do the Blackshirts put points on the board themselves? Aurich’s defenses do — San Diego State was also fifth in the country in defensive touchdowns last season. Nebraska has a wall in the defensive meeting room tracking turnovers against the championship teams, with one line on it so far. Tonight is the night to add to it.

The honest part

The model has this at 96.6% — its most confident call on the whole board. I’m still going twelve points past it, which means if this stays close I’ll wear it.

But I was at 25 last week when the model said 17, and it finished 28. I keep being told to trust this team less than I do. So far that’s been the wrong advice.

Six o’clock, Memorial Stadium, under the lights. Husker Nation, let’s go get one.